BOM warns Australia faces more serve tropical cyclones despite and average season forecast
Australia’s topical cyclone season officially runs from November to April
The Bureau of Meteorology’s long term forecast is predicting 11 tropical cyclones will form off Australia’s coast— five forming off WA’s Pilbara and Kimberley, four off the Queensland coast and three off the Northern Territory and Gulf of Carpentaria. Four are predicted to make landfall.
While this is an “average” forecast, the bureau says warmer than average ocean temperatures make the likelihood of severe tropical cyclones forming, higher than average.
The 2023/24 season produced six severe tropical cyclones, with Cyclone Jasper causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage across the Solomon Islands and Far North Queensland.
BOM North West manager, Todd Smith said the stretch of coast from Broome to Exmouth is the most cyclone-prone area in the country and that an “average” year can still be busy, with two or three making it to category 3 or more.
New Warning System—Advice, Watch & Act, and Emergency
This cyclone season, Western Australia’s warning system will be in line with the rest of the country. Three warning levels: Advice, Watch and Act, and Emergency will replace blue, yellow, red and all clear alerts.
DFES’ Kimberley Superintendent noted the importance of residents familiarising themselves with what has changed as they prepare for the upcoming cyclone season.
DFES Emergency Services volunteers and staff will be going to remote communities and towns in the Kimberley and Pilbara to advise on preparedness and the new warning systems through information and training sessions.
Over the past 50 years there has been a steady decline in the overall number of cyclones forming in Australia, but a higher proportion reach severity and when making landfall produce more rainfall than they did 20 or 30 years ago.
